Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends

Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change

[1] Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to ...

Impact of Asian aerosol forcing on tropical Pacific circulation and the relationship to global temperature trends

The recent slowdown in the warming of global surface temperatures has been linked to the enhancement of trade winds in the central equatorial Pacific. The possible role of Asian aerosol emissions in forcing these wind anomalies is investigated through a series of idealized model simulations. Circulation patterns in response to localized negative radiative perturbations, indicative of aerosol ef...

Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled global‐mean surface temperature

[1] The observed evolution of the global‐mean surface temperature over the twentieth century reflects the combined influences of natural variations and anthropogenic forcing, and it is a primary goal of climate models to represent both. In this study we isolate, compare, and remove the following natural signals in observations and in climate models: dynamically induced atmospheric variability, ...

North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability

Recent Climatology, Variability, and Trends in Global Surface Humidity

In situ observations of surface air and dewpoint temperatures and air pressure from over 15 000 weather stations and from ships are used to calculate surface specific (q) and relative (RH) humidity over the globe (60°S–75°N) from December 1975 to spring 2005. Seasonal and interannual variations and linear trends are analyzed in relation to observed surface temperature (T) changes and simulated ...